By Shahid Javed Burki, Guillermo E. Perry
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Additional info for Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1998: banks and capital markets : sound financial systems for the 21st century : proceedings of a conference held in San Salvador, El Salvador
I have just argued, however, that investment depends on much more than just the interest rate. At the same time, "investment" can be broadened to include research and development, human capital, learning by doing, improved management, and other elements of "total factor productivity"issues that have received renewed attention in recent endogenous theories of economic growth (see Lucas 1973 and Romer 1990). This opens up the possibility of studying how the financial system affects long-run growth.
There is a strong empirical basis for thinking that it does. Research by Ross Levine and others surveyed in Levine (1997) shows a strong link between economic growth and the depth of the banking system and liquidity of financial markets. 8 percent annual growth for countries in the lowest quartile of stock market liquidity. 4 percent. I have extended the finance-based macroeconomic model I used to discuss economic fluctuations to the study Page 17 of long-run growth (see Greenwald, Kohn, and Stiglitz 1990 for a theoretical model, and Greenwald, Salinger, and Stiglitz 1992 for some empirical evidence).
The volatility in secondary markets is well beyond what can be explained by movements in fundamentals (Shiller 1989). One of the most plausible explanations for this excess volatility is irrational market psychology and bubbles. Keynes put this well when he compared secondary markets to a beauty contest, in which each judge is not concerned with identifying the most beautiful contestant, but in figuring out who the other judges think is the most beautiful contestant. Much of this short-term speculative activity has zero or negative social value.
Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1998: banks and capital markets : sound financial systems for the 21st century : proceedings of a conference held in San Salvador, El Salvador by Shahid Javed Burki, Guillermo E. Perry